基于不确定性分析的土壤-水稻系统镉污染综合风险评估

Comprehensive Risk Evaluation of Cadmium in Soil-rice System Based on Uncertainty Analysis

从不确定性角度评估土壤-水稻系统镉（Cd）累积风险有助于风险决策的科学性和合理性.本研究应用物种敏感性分布模型（SSD）、健康风险评价模型及Monte Carlo模拟方法分析湖南省攸县土壤-水稻系统Cd富集特征,土壤Cd累积风险和稻米Cd健康风险.结果表明攸县稻米Cd富集因子（PUF）平均水平为1.86,多数Cd超标稻米样品来自土壤酸化严重的区域;土壤Cd污染负荷系数为2.4,隶属于强污染水平;在当前土壤Cd累积条件下,10年后研究区土壤Cd含量处于中度污染水平的概率达到90.4%;健康风险评价显示研究区成人经食用大米Cd平均摄入量（以BW计）为2.9μg·（kg·d）-1,有93.9%的概率高于WHO推荐标准.稻米Cd健康风险指数（HRI）主要集中在2.1-4.7之间,健康风险水平较高.当土壤pH〈5.5时,HRI〉1的概率为95.3%,土壤pH〉6时,HRI〉1的概率降为68.1%.

Cadmium（ Cd） can cause adverse health effects and is a subject of concern in rice consumption. The uncertainty analysis helps improve the accuracy in the risk assessment for Cd in soil-rice system. A regional investigation on Youxian prefecture,southern China,was conducted to analyze the Cd concentration in rice. Based on the species sensitivity distribution model（ SSD）,health risk assessment model,and Monte Carlo simulation,the accumulation characteristic of Cd in soil-rice system,accumulation risk of Cd in soil,and health risk of Cd concentration in rice were determined. The results showed that the plant uptake factor（ PUF） of Cd of rice was well fitted by the SSD model. The mean level of PUF was 1. 86,with a significant spatial heterogeneity. The rice produced in WL county tended to accumulate a high level of Cd. There was no significant relationship between concentrations of Cd in soil and rice,suggesting that of rice renders the Cd risk management very difficult. The pollution load index of Cd in soil was 2. 4,which belonged to a moderate contamination level. Under current accumulation condition of Cd in soil,there would be a 90. 4% probability for soil Cd concentration to be higher than the national soil quality standard after 10 years. Health risk assessment showed that the average daily dose（ ADD） was 2. 9 μg·（ kg·d）- 1,3. 5 fold higher than the WHO limit. About 93. 9% of the adult populations consuming rice cropping in affected areas had the risk that the daily Cd intake was above the WHO limit. The health risk index（ HRI） was around 2. 1to 4. 7. The probability for health risk index（ HRI） higher than 5 was 21. 5%,suggesting a high health risk. When the soil pH was lower than 5. 5,the probability for HRI higher than 1 was 95. 3%,and when the soil pH was higher than 6,the probability for HRI higher than 1 reduced to 68. 1%. An improved management of soil pH values would be needed for a better and safer rice production.The combination of uncertainty analysis,species sensitivity model and health risk assessment model was validated to be feasible and reliable in the risk analysis.