基于多种灰色模型对比的广西外贸加工贸易预测研究——灰色系统理论与应用系列论文之二

Forecasting Research of Guangxi Foreign Trade Processing Trade based on A Variety of Grey Models——The Second paper in series article of grey system theory and application

根据广西2009-2015年外贸加工贸易的数据,构建多种灰色模型,用残差检验和后验差检验计算小误差概率和均方差比,以此判断各模型的精度,并对广西外贸加工贸易额进行了预测.预测结果表明,新陈代谢模型在广西外贸加工贸易的短期预测中精度较高,Verhulst模型在广西外贸加工贸易的长期预测中精度较高.根据预测结果,提出构建并完善加工贸易数据平台,打造中国—东盟区域性制造中心,高端锁定广西-东盟加工贸易产业链,强化投资便利化与人才吸引力,加大对中小型加工贸易企业的扶持等对策建议.

According to the Guangxi 2009-2015 foreign trade processing trade data, construct a variety of grey model, with residual test and after test small error probability calculation and variance ratio in order to determine the accuracy of various models and the future Guangxi processing trade prediction. The prediction results show that the accuracy of the metabolic model in short term prediction is higher, and the accuracy of Verhulst model is higher in the long-term prediction. Finally put forward： to build and improve data processing trade platform, to build China - ASEAN regional manufacturing center, Guangxi - ASEAN indus- try chain of processing trade of high-end lock, strengthen investment facilitation and talent attraction, increase of small processing trade enterprises support and so on.