城市外来流动人口购房意愿及其影响因素研究——以城市规模的异质性为视角

On the Purchase Intention and Influencing Factors of Rural-urban Migrants in China

基于2014年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用二元logit模型对流动人口主观购房意愿特征及其影响因素所进行的研究发现,影响城市外来流动人口在工作地购房意愿的因素可归纳为经济因素、家庭因素以及城市融合因素。其中,家庭月均收入对工作地购房呈显著的U形影响,但影响不稳健;流动人口在城市的融合因素,如工作地的身份认同和邻居居住类型都对其工作地购房概率产生显著影响;空间流动方式对工作地买房意愿产生显著影响,市内跨县和省内跨市流动要比省际流动产生更高的买房意愿。此外,城市外来流动人口的购房意愿在不同规模的城市呈现出异质性,城市规模对流动人口工作地购房意愿的影响呈倒U形。相比一线城市,流入二线城市的流动人口在工作地购房的可能性最高,其次是三线城市。

Based on the dynamic monitoring survey data of the national floating population in 2014,this paper studies the characteristics and effects of the subjective purchase intention of the rural-urban migrants by using the binary logit model. The results show that the factors that affect the purchase intention of floating population can be summed up as economic factors,family factors and integration factors. The average monthly household income has a significant U-shaped effect on the purchase intention,but the effect is not robust. The effect of integration factors in the city,such as identification and neighbors' accommodation types,is significantly positive; the spatial flow pattern has a remarkable influence on the purchase intention. In addition,the purchase intention of the rural-urban migrants in different cities presents heterogeneity. The impact of urban size on the willingness of the local house takes on an inverted U shape. The possibility for floating population to buy local housing is the highest in the second tier cities,followed by the third and then the first tier cities.