承德机场沉降变形时间序列分析与预测研究

Settlement Prediction in the Chengde Airport Construction

基于新建承德机场沉降量的实测资料,针对西端高边坡的地基沉降问题,采用指数曲线函数模型和双曲线函数模型以及皮尔曲线模型进行了最终沉降量预测。对比分析了不同数学模型的拟合精度,通过对不同模型拟合效果的比较,选取双曲线模型对承德机场工后最终沉降量进行预测,得出新建承德机场西端高边坡测点1-4的最终沉降量为58.24mm。最终沉降量的预测结果对机场后续监测和建设具有指导意义,对机场后续工程起到优化施工和安全预报的作用。

Based on the observed settlement data,the ultimate settlement prediction work was performed at the west end of the sloped area in Chengde Airport construction by using exponential function,hyperbolic function and Pearl Model methods.The prediction accuracy of each method are carefully analyzed and the hyperbolic function method was used to predict the ultimate settlement.It is concluded that the ultimate settlement at survey points at the west end should be 58.24 mm.The ultimate settlement prediction work can provide a viable method for the post construction performance of the airport structures.