低空空域运行安全综合评价方法研究

Probe into the evaluation method for low altitude airspace operation safety

提高低空空域运行安全的管理水平,必有一套科学、合理的安全评价方法。从多个角度探究低空空域运行安全的影响因素,并建立低空空域运行安全初步评价指标体系,运用基于改进遗传算法的粗糙集对指标进行约简,建立了更精简的安全评价指标体系。为降低不确定性及主观因素对评价结果的影响,采用不确定型层次分析法来确定指标主观权重、粗糙集评价法确定指标客观权重,根据组合赋权模型将主客观权重进行融合,结合底层指标评价值实现对低空空域运行安全的综合评价。

In this paper we would like to introduce a safety evaluation method to assess the safety situation of low altitude airspace operation. As is well known, high frequency of accidents taking place in the low altitude airspace may bring about the operation safety into a serious situation. Therefore, it is necessary to pay enough attention to the safety evaluation of low altitude airspace. For this purpose, this paper would like to put its research focus on the following aspects ： First of all, we have established a rough set model for the reduction and importance degree of the attributes as the basis of evaluation. Secondly, we have analyzed the safety factors of low altitude airspace operation from the multiple perspectives and built up a safety evaluation index system. To a- chieve more realistic and reliable results, we have quantified all the indexes with the grey theory to loWer fuzziness, so that the number of the aforementioned indexes could be massive and re- dundant enough for them to be partly eliminated, thus enabling us to apply the rough set attributes reduction model to them based on an innovated genetic approach to rebuild a more compact evalua- tion index system. Thirdly, since it is difficult for experts to make exact judgment, it would be possible for us to choose a uncertain analytical hierarchy process to determine the subjective weights on account of the complexity of the evaluation, for adequate use of the information the data carried, it would be possible for us to determine the objective weights by the rough set. Given the prob- lems that uncertainty and artificial errors of the subjective evaluation method and the likeliness of the discrepancy between the ac- tuality and the results derived from the subjective and objective evaluation methods, it is advisable to adopt a combination weigh- ting model to fuse the weights respectively obtained from the subjective and objective evaluation methods. And, finally, when we have made a practical evaluation of the low altitude airspace operation, the final results would naturally indicate that the safety situation evaluation of the low altitude airspace operation may not be highly confidential, which conclusion can probably provide a control suggestion to improve the low altitude airspace operation safety more comprehensively and down-to-earth way.