基于系统动力学的城市碳排放及减排潜力分析——以天津市为例

On the reduced urban carbon emission and an analysis of such reduced emission potential based on the dynamic system by taking Tianjin as a case sample

为促进天津低碳经济发展,运用系统动力学方法建立了碳排放动力学模型,设置4种不同方案,预测了2013—2030年天津市碳排放的变化趋势,并探求产业结构优化、能源结构改善、低碳技术进步和碳汇能力增强对未来天津市碳排放的影响。结果表明,4种方案的碳排放量增长趋势逐年变缓,在综合调控产业结构、能源结构、技术水平和碳汇能力的方案下,天津市将在2028年出现碳排放高峰,2013—2028年累计碳减排潜力为13.02亿t,其中,由于结构调整所带来的碳减排潜力为1.5亿t,由于低碳技术水平提高和碳汇能力增强所带来的减排潜力为11.52亿t。在天津市碳排放量达到峰值后,结构调整、低碳技术水平和碳汇能力继续为碳减排发挥积极作用,相比于结构调整,低碳技术水平提高和碳汇能力增强的减排贡献度更高,是天津市碳减排的主要途径。

The present paper intends to present a system dynamics model on the urban carbon reduced emission with an analysis of the validation and sensitivity of the model based on the analog simulation and the dynamic system theory in hoping to promote the development of the low carbon economy of Tianjin. The analysis results have shown that the model proves to have a great stability and availability for performing mathematical simulation and great sensitivity for the tremendous technological progress, the proportional change of the coal consumption, the ratio between the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, as well as the proportion among the various sections of oil consumption, natural gas consumption and the carbon sink, though the model remains not very sensitive to the transformed proportion of the different branches of the primary industry. And, then, we have investigated and made a forecast of the current trend of the carbon emission in the urban areas in accordance with the specific characteristics of the city in this way. What is more, we have classified four different patterns of carbon emission in hoping to make out the impact of the current heavy carbon emission on the optimization of the industrial configuration, the further improvement of the energy consumption structure by promoting the low carbon-emission technology and the corresponding in- stallations and facilities. The results of our investigation and exploration show that it would be possible to slow down the carbon emission growing trend of the aforementioned four patterns year by year. The carbon emissions peak for the city can be predicted to appear in 2028 as the result of the comprehensive adjustment of the industrial and energy consumption proportions, the comprehensive technical innovation level and carbon emission reduction potential. It can also be predicted that by that year（2028） there will appear the peak carbon emission of the city, that is 302 billion tons, including 150 million tons of structural emission reduction and 1. 152 billion tons reduction due to the technological progress. And, it can be forecast that even by then the structural adjustment, the low carbon technology shall be going on to play a positive contribution to carbon reduction. Therefore, the results of the analysis and research of this paper on the carbon emission potential based on the dynamic system proves that the technological progress and the carbon sink capacity theory can be taken as a chief pathway in reducing the carbon emission of Tianjin in the near future at least.