用“稳”投资来“稳”经济——2017年我国投资形势分析与对策

“Stable” Investment to “Stabilize” the Economy——Analysis of Investment Situation and Countermeasures in 2017

近年来,全球经济呈现出经济增长短期停滞,通货紧缩压力增大,政策刺激的边际效应弱化,实体经济不振,经济复苏的不确定性加大等典型特征。我国经济同样面临着"四降一升"的问题。在经济复苏的道路上,我国经济与世界经济增长具有很强的逻辑一致性。从长期来看,解决危机最核心的手段是结构改革,寻求新的增长动力。而在短期内,经济增长的动力在于投资,稳投资是稳增长的重要抓手。预计2017年全社会固定资产投资名义增长9%左右,增速比2016年稍有回落。基于此,当前稳投资需要在投资结构、制度设计、投资增长模式上重点突破。

In recent years, the global economy has shown a series of typical characteristics including stagnation of economic growth in the short term, increasing deflation pressure, weakening effect of policy stimulus, depression of real economy and the uncertainty of economic recovery. China＇s economy also faces such problems as ＂four indicators decreasing and one increasing＂. On the road of economic recovery, the growth for both China and the world＇s economy has a strong logical consistency. In the long run, the most important measure to solve the crisis is the structural reform so as to seek the new growth momentum. But in the short term, the driving force for economic growth is investment; steady investment is an important grasper for steady growth. Based on our forecast, the nominal investment growth will be around 9% in 2017, a little bit slowdown than last year. Based on this, the current steady investment need to focus on the key breakthroughs in the investment structure, system design, investment growth mode.