我国工业去产能、去库存进程与工业经济增长的分析

Analysis of Cutting Overcapacity and Destocking in China's Industry and Its relationship with Industrial Growth

在我国经济增速持续放缓、经济面临较大转型压力的当下,工业经济的稳定运行和工业行业的去产能、去库存成为关系当前我国经济能否平稳转型的关键,而伴随这一进程的工业转型升级更是关系着未来我国在国际政治经济格局中所处地位的关键。本文基于工业行业总量数据与细分工业行业数据,详细分析当前我国工业去产能、去库存进展及其与工业行业经济增长的关联,分析结果表明:我国工业行业去库存已经取得较好进展,去库存的过程基本结束,而去产能也逐步呈现成效;从去产能去库存的角度来看,我国工业经济已经触底,未来将有可能缓步回升,但总体在低位波动。

With the slowing-down of economic growth, China is now under great pressure of transition. A steady industrial economic development and the smooth process of cutting overcapacity and destocking in the industrial sectors is the key factor that affects whether China could achieve a steady and successful transition. Moreover, the transition of industry would directly shape China＇s future in the global political and economic platform. This paper analyzes the current progress in cutting overcapacity and destocking in China＇s industry and its relationship with industrial growth based on the detailed industry data. The results reveals that China has made great progress in destocking and cutting overcapacity, and the industrial growth has reached the trough and might slowly increased in the future, but still maintained at a low level.