我国煤炭消费结构变化的阶段性特征研究

Analysis on the Phased Characteristics of China's Coal Consumption Structure and Policy Suggestion on China 's Energy Consumption Structure

能源消费结构不仅关系着经济增长,也关系着人民生活水平和人类生态环境质量。随着中国经济快速发展、工业化快速推进,能源消费结构中存在的问题日益凸显。本文采用BP结构突变点检验方法,识别煤炭消费结构的演变特征,分析每一阶段变化的动因。检验结果表明,1985—2015年我国煤炭消费结构存在5个突变点,其中2012—2015年是煤炭消费占比下降最快的阶段,减煤替代等政策有助于优化能源消费结构。

Energy consumption structure is not only related to economic growth, but also the people＇s living standards and the quality of human ecological environment. With China＇s rapid economic development and industrialization, the problems of energy consumption structure have become increasingly prominent. This paper uses the BP structural breakpoint test to detect the evolution characteristics, and analyses the causes of coal consumption structure. The test shows that there exist five breakpoints in China＇s coal consumption structure during 1985-2015, in which 2012-2015 is the stage that the portion of coal consumption declines the most. It shows that the policy to promote substitution of coal helps to optimize the energy consumption structure.