基于食物能量安全的马铃薯主粮化实证研究--以宁夏南部山区为例

Empirical Studies on Promotion of Potato as Staple Food Based on Food Energy Safety——A Case in Hilly Area of Southern Ningxia Autonomous Region

随着国家马铃薯主粮化战略的实施,马铃薯在保障国家粮食安全中的地位不断提高,基于食物能量安全标准,以宁夏南部山区6区县(原州区、西吉县、隆德县、泾源县、彭阳县和海原县)为例,研究马铃薯主粮化对粮食安全和其他大宗作物的影响。结果表明:西北旱作一年一熟制区马铃薯单产(鲜重)>玉米>小麦>豆类,隆德县和泾源县马铃薯单产分别达到18.16 t/hm2和18.01 t/hm2,高于全国平均水平;现有单产水平下,单位面积马铃薯生产虚拟水小于玉米、小麦和豆类;单位耕地面积马铃薯生产食物能量显著高于小麦和豆类,而低于玉米;马铃薯可实现增产潜力以彭阳县和海原县较大,分别为10.22 t/hm2和12.27 t/hm2,大于玉米和小麦可实现增产潜力;当一个地区马铃薯单位面积产量超过小麦的3.8倍、玉米的4.1倍、豆类的4.7倍时,单位面积马铃薯生产食物能量才能超过小麦、玉米和大豆。因此,黄土高原旱区发展马铃薯主粮化需谨慎,不同农业区域应根据农业结构、粮食单产及可实现粮食生产潜力的具体情况,确定马铃薯的主粮位置,以免造成耕地生产食物能量总量下降,威胁到区域粮食安全。

Along with the implementation of the strategy of developing potato as a stable food in China,potato＇s status in ensuring national food security has been continually improved. Based on food energy safety standard,this paper took 6 counties in southern hilly area of Ningxia Autonomous Region（ Yuanzhou District,Xiji County,Longde County,Jingyuan County,Pengyang County and Haiyuan County） as example,studied the effects of potato stapling on grain safety and the other major crops. The result showed that in one crop per annual of northwest dry-land cropping area potato yields per unit（ fresh weight） 〉corn〉 wheat〉 beans. Potato yields per unit of area in Longde and Jingyuan Counties reached 18.16 t/hm^2 and 18.01 t/hm^2,respectively,higher than national average level. Under current yield level per unit of area,the virtual water of potato was less than corn,wheat and beans; food energy produced by potato was significantly higher than that of wheat and soybeans,while lower than that of corn. Pengyang and Haiyuan Counties had larger potato yield-increasing potential,reaching 10. 22 t/hm^2 and 12. 27 t/hm^2,respectively,higher than that of corn and wheat. Only when the potato yield per unit of area was surpassing 3.8 times of wheat,4.1 times of corn and 4.7 times of beans,food energy per unit area produced by potato could surpass that of wheat,corn and soybeans. Therefore,we should be very cautious about developing potato into a staple food in dryland area of the Loess Plateau. Different agriculture regions should ascertain potato as staple food,according to their actual status of agriculture structure,grain yield per unit of area,and grain yield-increasing potential,so as to avoid the decreasing of total food energy produced by arable land,and threatening the regional grain safety.