基于AHP模型的北京市服务业循环经济发展水平评价（英文）

The Circular Economic Development Level of Beijing's Service Sector Based on AHP Modeling

本文以北京这个服务业为主导且深受资源环境约束的特大型城市为案例,对其服务业循环经济发展进行评价。从内部子系统(经济发展、资源消耗、废物排放、废弃物循环使用)、外部子系统(产业关联度)以及共生子系统(社会贡献度)三个层面,构建评价服务业循环经济发展水平的指标体系,并基于层次分析法对2000–2013年的数据进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)北京市服务业循环经济发展水平在2000–2008年间呈现出不断提升的趋势,而2009–2013年间出现下降,这主要是由于受2008年国际金融危机的影响,北京市经济产出水平增速下降;(2)内部子系统的变化对北京市服务业循环经济发展的影响较大,经济发展、资源消耗、废物排放及废弃物循环利用指标的综合权重依次为0.367、0.136、0.136、0.075;(3)以产业关联度为代表的外联子系统对北京市服务业循环经济发展水平的影响相对内部子系统较小,综合权重为0.143,说明北京市服务业部门循环经济发展与周边省市,尤其是天津与河北的农业与工业发展有较大的关联度;(4)以服务业就业人数来衡量的共生子系统的综合权重为0.143,说明北京市服务业部门循环经济发展水平的提升可有效促进就业。最后,本文基于上述结果,提出促进北京市服务业循环经济发展的政策建议。

As a mega-city constrained by resources and the environment, Beijing has developed a leading service sector, and it is necessary to evaluate the service sector circular economy in this major global city. Here, we estab- lish an indicator system including internal subsystem （economic production, resources consumption, waste emis- sions, and waste recycling）, external subsystem （industry correlation） and mutualistic subsystem （society devel- opment）, and use AHP modeling to evaluate the period from 2000 to 2013. We found that the development of the service sector circular economy in Beijing experienced an increase from 2000 to 2008, then a decrease from 2009 to 2013. This change mainly resulted from the decrease in Beijing＇s GDP following the international financial crisis in 2008. The internal subsystem greatly influences the service sector circular economy：synthetic weight of eco- nomic production, resource consumption, waste emissions and waste recycling was 0.367,0.136,0.136 and 0.075, respectively. Within the external subsystem, industrial correlation has a weak connection with Beijing＇s service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, this result illustrates that the development of the service sector circular economy has an intimate relationship with other cities or provinces around Beijing, such as Tianjin and Hebei. As are presentative of the mutualistic subsystem, society development has a positive nexus with the service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, proving that the development of the service sector circular economy can improve the service sector employment ratio in Beijing. We conclude with some suggestions on how to develop the service sector circular economy in Beijing.