我国地区财政幻觉指数测算及影响因素研究——基于MIMIC模型方法

A Study on Measurement and Influence Factors of Regional Fiscal Illusion Index in China——Based on the MIMIC Model Method

财政幻觉是世界各国(地区)普遍存在的一个经济现象。本文在对财政幻觉内涵重新界定的基础上,首次分析了我国地区财政幻觉的影响因素,采用MIMIC模型测算了我国30个地区2006-2013年的财政幻觉指数,结果表明:我国各地区财政幻觉指数呈逐年下降趋势,其中,西部地区最高,中部地区次之,东部地区最低,各地区财政幻觉指数与人均GDP显著负相关。研究还发现,地方财政负担水平、间接税占比、税收HHI指数、自我就业率、教育水平和CPI指数是影响地区财政幻觉的主要因素,而较高的财政幻觉则不利于财政透明度的提升。因此,政府应降低财政负担,优化政府支出结构,改革完善税制结构,鼓励个体和私营经济发展,提高居民受教育水平,以减缓财政幻觉的负面效应,增强居民财税意识,提高政府财政透明度。

Fiscal illusion is a widespread economic phenomenon around countries （regio basis of redefining the meaning of fiscal illusion, this paper firstly analyzes the influence in the world. On the factors of regional fiscal illusion, and then calculates the fiscal illusion index of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2013 by using the MIMIC model. The results show that the regional fiscal illusion index declines year by year, that of western regions is the highest, that of central regions is the second highest, the eastern regions are lowest, and the relationship between regional fiscal illusion index and per capita GDP has significantly negative correlation. The study also finds that the local fiscal burden, the proportion of indirect tax to total tax, tax HHI index, self- employment rate, education level and the CPI index are the main factors affecting the regional fiscal illusion, while higher fiscal illusion is not conducive to the ascension of fiscal transparency. Therefore, the government should reduce the fiscal burden, optimize the structure of government expenditure, reform and improve the tax system structure, encourage the development of individual and private economy, improve the level of residents＇ education, which will play an important role in alleviating negative effect of fiscal illusion, heightening the residents＇ awareness of tax and improving the government＇s fiscal transparency.