“营改增”减税的收入分配效应

Income Distribution Effect of Tax Cut after "Turning Business Tax into Value Added Tax"

由于增值税和营业税的间接税性质,对于高达1万亿的营改增减税,居民几乎感受不到。如此大规模的减税究竟对我国居民收入分配有何影响?本文以间接税归宿的一般均衡理论为基础,通过构建可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,对基尼系数、MT指数、累进性指数等重要指标进行测算与分解。研究显示,营改增后,居民平均税收负担下降1.63%,居民平均收入上升1.57%,消费品平均价格下降1.33%,但不同居民从中受益不同。营改增后,全国、城镇和农村的基尼系数均下降,收入分配得到改善。改革对收入分配产生一个不利的影响:增值税的累退性增加。但由于平均税率下降对收入分配的正效应,抵消了增值税累退性增加的不利影响,二者综合后收入分配得到改善,营改增后平均税率下降是收入分配得到改善的最重要因素。最后,本文建议,中国应降低食品和药品等生活必需品税率,这可进一步降低增值税的累退性和平均税率,从而改善居民收入分配。

As both value added tax （VAT） and business tax （BT） are indirect taxes, the residents can hardly feel the 1 trillion tax-cut effect of ＂Turning Business Tax into Value Added Tax＂（TBT-VAT）. What impact will such a large tax-cut in China have on residents＇ income distribution actually？ Based on the theory of general equilibrium, this paper constructs a computable general equilibrium （CGE） model and calculates the important indicators of income distribution, such as Gini coefficient, MT index and progressivity index. Studies show that after TBT-VAT the average tax burden on residents fell by 1.63%, the average income of residents increased by 1.57% and the average price of consumption goods decreased by 3%, but different residents benefited differently from it. The Gini coefficient of the whole country, including urban and rural areas, is decreased, and the income distribution is improved. The TBT-VAT reform also has two negative effects on income distribution： the regressivity of VAT increased and the income gap between urban and rural areas slightly expanded. But the positive effect of the average tax rate drop on income distribution offsets the negative impact of VAT regressivity increase. The comprehensive income distribution has improved. The average tax rate decrease is the most important factor to improve income distribution. Finally, the article suggests that China should further reduce the tax rate of daily necessities, such as food and medicine. It can further reduce the regressivity and average tax rate of VAT and further improve income distribution.