如何找回迷失的货币——兼论当前我国的经济金融形势

How to Seek the Lost Money——Also on the Current Economic and Financial Situation in China

当前我国货币供应量快速增长而经济却下行、物价走低、融资难和融资贵问题更突出,货币似乎出现了迷失一样,这种现象我们称之为货币迷失。分析表明,我国当前确实面临货币迷失问题,存量货币迷失在国企、房地产和金融体系,但更重要的流量货币是被货币流通速度放缓这个无底"黑洞"所吞没。正是由于货币流通速度的大幅度下降,使同量货币对经济、物价、融资产生的作用递减,使同样的经济增长需要更多的货币去推动。而造成货币流通速度下降的原因是市场主体信心的下降。各主体持有货币的动机增强,投资、消费动机减弱。只有激活这些主体的信心,增强其乐观预期,经济才有可能活跃起来,稳定并转向较快增长。为此,我们主张增强市场主体信心,引导市场主体预期,政府主动作为填位,各方合力共济,尽快推动货币流通速度反转。

At present, such phenomena appear in China： monetary supply growing rapidly while economic downturn, prices going lower, problems of financing difficulty and expensive financing being much more focused, which is called the lost money. The analysis shows that we are really faced with the problem of lost money in China; that the stock money is lost in the state-owned enterprises, real estate and financial system; what＇ s more important is that the flow money is devoured by the bottomless ＂black hole＂ slow-down velocity of money circulation. It is the greatly slow-down velocity of money circulation that declines the impact of commensurate money upon economy, prices and financing, and makes boosting the same economic growth need more money. The cause for the declined velocity of money circulation is the decline of confidence in the market. The motive of market subjects to hold money is enhanced, while the motive to invest or consume is decreased. Only by activating the confidence of these subjects and enhancing their optimistic expectations, is the economy likely to be active, stable and turning to rapid growth. Hence, we advocate enhancing market subjects＇ confidence, guiding the market subjects＇ expectation and government initiative action to be in place, all the parties taking efforts so as to reverse the velocity of money circulation.