基于水贫乏指数的北京市水生态足迹核算及其动态演变预测

Water Ecological Footprint Accounting and Its Dynamic Evolution Prediction of Beijing City Based on the Water Poverty Index

水足迹分析法是近几年发展起来的定量测度水资源可持续利用的方法,水生态足迹以水资源为起点估算流域、区域水代谢强度。北京是严重缺水的大城市之一,随着人口的增长和社会经济的快速发展,水生态系统对自然灾害的抗干扰能力和自我调节能力下降,出现了一系列的生态环境问题。基于北京市水资源开发利用情况,利用水贫乏指数(Water Poverty Index,WPI)法核算北京市水生态足迹,用水资源状况(Resource)、供水设施状况(Access)、利用能力(Capacity)、使用效率(Use)及环境状况(Environment)5个分指数定量评价北京市1986—2014年的相对缺水程度。在此基础上,用EViews软件建立了差分自回归移动平均(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average,ARIMA)模型,用ARIMA(p,d,q)模型对时间序列进行预测分析,预测北京市2015—2030年WPI指数水生态足迹,结合各指数的预测数据分析预测北京市水资源可持续利用情况,并据此提出了北京市水资源可持续利用的用水效率、节水意识、技术发展、产业结构、环保意识等方面的相关管理对策。

Water footprint analysis is a quantitative method to measure the sustainable utilization of water resources in recent years. The method takes the water resource as the starting point to estimate the water metabolic intensity of watershed and region. Beijing is one of the major cities with severe water scarcity, with the population growth and rapid socio-economic development, the anti-disturbance and self-regulation ability of the aquatic ecosystem to natural disasters begin to decline, and then there has been a series of ecological and environmental problems. Based on the development and utilization of water resources in Beijing, the Water Poverty Index （WPI） meth- od was used to calculate the water ecological footprint of Beijing. And the relative water shortage degree in Beijing from 1986 to 2014 was quantitatively evaluated by five sub-indices： water resource, access, capacity, use and environment. On this basis, the Autore- gressive Integrated Moving Average （ARIMA） model was established by EViews software, and the ARIMA （p, d, q） model was used to predict the time series. Further the water ecological footprint of WPI index in Beijing from 2015 to 2030 was predicted. Combined with the forecast data of each index, the water resources sustainable utilization in Beijing was analyzed and forecasted. And accordingly the related management countermeasures of water efficiency, water-saving awareness, technological development, industrial structure, environmental awareness and so on of water resources sustainable utilization in Beijing were put forward.