“三条红线”约束下区域水资源复合系统仿真与模拟研究——以菏泽市为例

Study on Simulation of Regional Water Resources Composite System under the ″Three Red Lines″ Constraints: A Case Study of Heze City

为了将最严格水资源管理制度落到实处,实现管理制度的可量化和可操作化,在综合考虑用水需求、用水供给和用水特性的基础上,运用系统动力学方法构建了包括人口、经济、用水、资源、环境等系统的水资源复合系统动态模型。并以菏泽市为例,模拟分析了其在现状发展情景下和基于"三条红线"目标约束不同情景下,水资源利用的变化情况。计算结果显示:在现状发展情景下,2020年菏泽市将缺水1.5亿m3,水资源供需平衡比为0.94,水污染比为0.025 8;"三条红线"目标约束情景下,不同的模拟方案结果不同,其中综合效益排名前20%的方案极大地缓解了菏泽市水资源的供需矛盾,减轻了水污染状况,可为探讨制定菏泽市合理的"三条红线"目标提供借鉴。

In order to implement the strict water resources management system and make it quantifiable and operational, on the basis of comprehensive consideration of water demand, water supply and water use characteristics, a dynamic model of water resources complex system including population, economy, water use, resources and environment was constructed by system dynamics method. Taking Heze City as an example, the changes of water resources utilization were simulated and analyzed under the scenarios of and the of cur- rent development ＂three red lines＂. The results show the water shortage of the current development situation of Heze City in 2010 is 1.5 x lOs m3 , the balance ratio of water resources supply and demand is 0.94 and water pollution ratio is 0. 025 8. Different simulation scheme under ＂three red lines＂ constraints have different results. The comprehensive benefits of the top 20% programs greatly relieved the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources and reduced the water pollution situation of Heze City, which can pro- vide a reference for the development of Heze City＇s reasonable ＂three red lines＂.