中日稀土产品贸易条件及其影响因素——基于1993～2014年稀土行业面板数据的实证分析

China-Japan Terms of Trade on Rare-Earth Products and Its Decision Factors— Empirical Study on Rare-Earth Products Panel Data from 1993 to 2014

本文利用Hs-6位数级微观贸易数据与帕式指数，测度了1993~2014年问中日稀土产品价格贸易条件，并实证检验了决定中日稀土产品价格贸易条件的主要因素。研究结果显示：第一，中日稀土产品总体价格贸易条件在总体上趋于恶化；中低端产品价格贸易条件波动较大，且总体上改善；高端产品价格贸易条件持续恶化。第二，中日稀土产品出口量、经济规模对三组价格贸易条件都有负面影响；劳动生产率、汇率对三组价格贸易条件都有促进作用；出口产品结构对总体价格贸易条件、中低端产品价格贸易条件有负面影响，对高端产品价格贸易条件有正面影响。第三，在出口管制手段违反国际规则而被禁用的情况下，中国通过环境税、资源税等国内规制手段继续控制稀土产品的出口量，引导企业完善定价机制，并继续提高稀土产品技术水平，减少对日本高技术稀土产品的依赖，有利于促进中国稀土产品价格的合理回归，增加贸易利得。

This paper calculates the China-Japan terms of trade index on rare- earth products by 6 digit trade data from 1993 to 2014 and studies the main decision factors. The results show that first, altogether the China-Japan terms of trade on rare- earth products is deteriorating, terms of trade on low- and- middle products as a whole is improving with wide fluctuations, while that of high products is continuously deteriorating. Second, the China-Japan export quantity and GDP have bad effects on terms of trade while productivity and exchange rate have good effects on it. However, technical level has bad effects to terms of trade on rare-earth as a whole and low - and - middle products while has good effects to high products. Third, the export con- trois are forbidden because of violating international rules. So China controls the ex- port quantity and helps the enterprise to improve the pricing method through environ- mental tax and resource tax. Additionally, China will enhance the technical levels of rare-earth products and reduce reliance on Japan＇s high technology rare-earth products, so that can promote China＇s price of rare-earth products to be reasonable and improve the terms of trade.