环境干涉因子防控措施与鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病疫情的邓氏灰色关联分析

Grey relational analysis of environment interference factors and control measures on endemic status of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake Eco-economic Region

目的探讨自然环境因素和社会经济因素(简称环境干涉因子)、血吸虫病防控措施对鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病流行的影响。方法应用邓氏灰色关联分析模型,分析鄱阳湖生态经济区九江市血吸虫病疫情关键指标与环境干涉因子、血吸虫病防控措施之间的关系。结果 13项环境干涉因子中,6项自然环境因素(鄱阳湖年平均水位、年平均气温、暴雨站次、年平均相对湿度、年日照时数、年降水量)与血吸虫病疫情指标的关联最密切(r_i均>0.9);社会经济因素中,卫生技术人员数、医疗机构床位数与疫情指标的关联最密切;血吸虫病防控措施中,耕牛扩大化疗头数、药物灭螺、环境改造与疫情指标关联最密切。结论在研究和制定鄱阳湖生态经济区血吸虫病综合防控策略时,应综合考虑环境干涉因子各个因素的作用,根据疫情动态和防治目标适时调整,加强控制策略和措施的科学性、有效性。

Objective To explore the impact of environment factors and social economic factors（environment interference factors for short）and control measures on the endemic status of schistosomiasis in Poyang Lake Eco？economic Region. Meth？ods The grey relational analysis model was applied to analyze the relationships between the key indexes of schistosomiasis epi？demic status and the environment interference factors and control measures in Jiujiang City of Poyang Lake Eco？economic Re？gion. Results Six environment factors,which included the annual average water level of Poyang Lake,average annual tempera？ture,storm frequency,annual average relative humidity,annual sunshine duration,and annual precipitation,had the most closed relationship with the indexes of schistosomiasis epidemic status（all ri〉0.9）. Among the socioeconomic factors,the num？ber of health technicians and beds of health facilities were most associated with the indexes of schistosomiasis epidemic status. Among the control measures of schistosomiasis,the number of cattle treated with extending chemotherapy,chemically killing of Oncomelania hupensis snails and eco？renovation were most associated with the indexes of schistosomiasis epidemic status. Con？clusion The various environment interference factors and their interaction should be considered in formulating the comprehen？sive control strategy for schistosomiasis,and the control strategy should be adjusted according to the epidemic dynamic and schistosomiasis？focused targets,so as to further strengthen the scientificity and validity of the control strategy.