天然气火灾突发事件动态应急决策研究

Dynamic emergency decision for gas fire events

针对不同等级状态下的天然气火灾,构建了一种改进型的突发事件动态应急决策模型。运用马尔科夫过程进行突发事件发展状态的动态趋势预测,引入改进型灰靶决策方法进行应急方案评价。以某地天然气火灾为例,验证了该模型不仅可以进行有效的决策,还可以消除决策指标间的相关性、量纲差异和重要性差异对决策效果的影响。

Considering the different grades of gas fires, an improved dynamic emergency decision model was proposed. Markov process was used to forecast emergency dynamic development trend. And an improved＇ gray target decision-making method was applied to evaluate emergency program. A case of emergency decision of gas fire was introduced to demonstrate the proposed method. The result indicated that the model not only can make effective decision, but also can avoid correlation of decision indexes, influences of different dimension and differences of importance on effect of decisions.