新常态下中国能源需求预测预警研究

Research on China's Energy Demand Forecasting and Pre- warning Under the New Normal

考虑能源—经济—环境大系统的协调作用,构建中国能源需求预测预警的系统动力学模型,运用情景模拟方法模拟新常态下经济增速、产业结构、能源政策不同的三种情景,分别预测"十三五"期间中国能源需求量、需求结构、CO2排放量和能源预警指标。研究发现:新常态下,能源需求总量增速由高速增长变为中高速增长;当经济增速为6.5%时,加快产业结构转型,加大能源调控力度,到2020年时我国能源需求量达到50.78亿t标准煤,非化石能源需求比例为16.1%,CO2排放量将达到103亿t,能源自给率为82.7%,该指标处于预警区域。本研究为新常态下中国能源规划提供理论依据与决策支持。

Considering the coordination of energy- economy- environment system, a system dynamic model of energy demand forecasting was built, then this paper applied scenario simulation method to simulate the three scenarios of different economic growth, industrial structure and energy policy under the new normal to forecast China＇s energy demand,energy mix ,CO2 emissions and pre- warning indicators in the 13th five- year peri- od. The results demonstrated that ： Under the new normal, energy demand growth shifted from rapid to medium - to - high speed, when economic growth rate was 6.5 % , speeding up industrial restructuring, intensifying the regulation of energy, energy demand would reach 5.078 billion tons of standard coal, non - fossil energy demand ratio would reach 16.1% and CO2 emissions would reach 10.3 billion tons in 2020, the energy self- sufficiency rate was 82.7 %, which would be in the warning area. The study provided the theoretical basis and decision support for China＇s energy planning under the new normal.