西北干旱区人口—农业经济—生态耦合协调态势分析——以甘肃省民勤县为例

Analysis of Coupling Coordination Situation Among Population- Agricultural Economy- Ecology in Northwest Arid Areas——Taking Minqin County of Gansu Province as an Example

根据2000—2014年甘肃省民勤县人口、农业经济和生态三个方面的相关数据,构建人口—农业经济—生态综合评价指标体系,运用变异系数法和耦合协调度模型对该县人口—农业经济—生态系统的耦合度、耦合协调度和综合评价指数进行了测算与分析。结果表明:近15年来,民勤县的人口—农业经济—生态系统耦合度C为0.372—0.696,经历了颉颃耦合和磨合耦合两个阶段,呈先下降后上升的趋势;耦合协调度D为0.325—0.639,整体实现了由失调衰退到协调发展的良性转化,虽然耦合度和耦合协调度都有所改善,但耦合协调程度较低。根据这一发展态势,结合民勤县特殊的自然条件,提出相应的对策建议。

According to the relevant data about the population, agricultural economy and ecology from 2000 to 2014 in Minqin County of Gansu Province, this paper established the population- agricultural economy- ecology comprehensive evaluation index system, calculated and analyzed the population - agricultural economy - ecology system coupling, coupling coordination degree and the comprehensive evaluation index in Minqin County by using variation coefficient method and coupling coordination degree model. The results showed that：The coupling degree（C value） of population- agricultural economy - ecology system in Minqin County was 0. 372 - 0. 696, with a first fall after rising trend, experienced coupling of rivalry and running- in coupling two phases in recent 15 years. The coupling coordination degree（ D value） of three systems was 0.325 -0.639, transformed im- balanced recession into coordinated development in whole. Although the coupling and coupling coordination degree were improved, the coupling coordi- nation degree was still low. According to this development trend and the special natural conditions of Minqin County, put forward the corresponding and suggestions