基于QFD与PD-HFLTS的应急预案评估研究

Evaluation of emergency plan based on QFD and PD-HFLTS

为在应急预案评估中,能充分考虑预案实施人员的诉求,并有效表征预案评估人员给出评价时的犹豫性,建立基于质量功能展开(QFD)与可能性分布-犹豫模糊语言术语集(PD-HFLTS)的预案评估模型。首先,由预案实施人员给出需求信息,借助预案需求项与内容项的关联信息,确定内容项基本重要度;然后,依据预案内容制定或改进的困难程度修正内容项重要度,确定内容项综合重要度,据之判定预案的关键内容与不足之处。以某铁路局防洪应急预案为对象的案例分析结果表明,该模型具有较强的可行性与可操作性;现有预案存在重应急响应、轻应急准备的问题。

In order to take fully account of the information the operators require and characterize effectively the fuzziness and hesitation the evaluators have in giving the evaluation, an evaluation model of emergency plan based on QFD and PD-HFLTS was bulit. Firstly, the basic importance ratings of content items were obtained from the information the operators required and the correlation information between requirement items and content items. And then the importance ratings of content items were adjusted based on the difficulty in the content items＇ formulation or revising. After that, the comprehensive importance ratings of the content items were obtained to determine the key content and the deficiencies of the plan. The model was used in the flood control emergency plan evaluation of a certain railway bureau in China. The results show that the model has strong feasibility and operability, and that the existing plan attaches great importance to emergency response but scorns emergency preparedness.