高速铁路与经济增长的因果关系——基于时空理论视角下中国省域面板数据的计量分析

Causality relationship between high speed railway and economic growth——analysis of China's provincial panel data based on spatial theory

针对中国高速铁路供给对经济增长和产业结构的影响,以及产业结构、城镇化率、人口密度如何决定高速铁路供给等问题,对高速铁路与经济增长的即时效应、快速效应和慢速效应机理进行分析。研究认为,从高速铁路对经济增长角度来看,2005~2014年中国省域面板数据实证表明：高速铁路在十年间的即时效应和快速效应不断降低,高速铁路的高时间价值与高出行成本特性主导的慢速效应占据支配地位,导致高速铁路对全国和中部地区经济增长没有显著影响,对东部地区有显著正向影响,对西部地区有显著负向影响,说明总体上高速铁路并不是经济增长的原因;从经济增长对高速铁路角度来看,Logit模型计量经济增长对高速铁路触发的影响表明：经济增长本源性需求内生出对高速铁路的即时效应、快速效应和慢速效应的派生性需求,经济增长以及第三产业、城镇化率、人口密度变量显著决定高速铁路供给。

Regarding the influence of China＇s high speed railway supply on economic growth and industrial structure and how the industrial structure, urbanization ratio and population density determine high speed railway supply, this paper analyzed the immediate effect, fast effect and slow effect mechanisms between high speed railway and economic growth. From the perspective of the impact of high speed railway on economic growth, China＇s provincial panel data from 2005 to 2014 shows that during the last ten years, the immediate effect and fats effect of high speed railway deteriorate gradually, and slow effect dominates for high speed railways high time value and transport expenditure, which leads to the fact that high speed railway renders no significant influence on China as a whole or central China while it has a significant positive impact on east China and significant negative impact on west China. The implication is that high speed railway is not the reason of economic growth; From the perspective of the impact of economy on high speed railway, Logit model study on the triggering mechanism shows that the immediate effect, slow effect and fast effect of high speed railway are derived demand of the original demand of national economy, tertiary industry, urbanization ratio and population density significantly determine the supply of high speed railway.