我国房地产上市公司财务危机预警的实证研究

Empirical Research on Financial Crisis Early Warning of Chinese Realestate Listing Corporation

基于沪、深两市证券交易所的样本数据,采用非参数检验与因子分析相结合的方法对我国146家房地产上市公司2009-2011年的财务数据进行处理分析,进而构建Logistic回归预警模型,并用该模型对2012和2013年新的样本数据进行验证预测,分析判别结果,判断预警模型设计的有效性和准确性。

Based on the sample data of the two stock exchanges in Shanghai and Shenzhen,it selected the financial data of 146 Chinese real estate listing corporations from 2009 to 2011 in this paper. It was processed and analyzed by using non-parametric test and factor analysis methods,then Logistic regression warning model was constructed. And using the model,it verified and predicted the new sample date of2012 and 2013,then analyzed the discriminant result to assess the effectiveness and accuracy of the warning model design.