菏泽市降水变化趋势与时空分布特征

Precipitation in Heze:Variation Trend and Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics

本研究对菏泽市的降水短期气候预测和应对气候变化具有重要意义。同时,也为合理利用气候资源、优化产业布局以及政府指导农业生产提供了科技支撑与理论支持。笔者利用菏泽市8县1区的1971—2010年的地面气象观测资料,运用一元一次线性回归分析法、M-K检验法、降水保证率法,对菏泽市近40年降水的空间分布、降水的年际年代变化趋势、降水的突变分析以及各县区的降水保证率进行分析。结果表明:菏泽市的年平均降水量从东南部县区向西北部县区呈阶梯状减少的趋势,并呈现出明显的上升趋势,上升速率为16.5 mm/10 a。1971—2001年的UB线大于0,降水量增加且趋势明显;2002年以后,UB线小于0,降水量减少。UF曲线和UB曲线在2条信度线之间存在交点,交点对应的年份为2003年,即2003年是菏泽市降水突变的时间点。当降水量保证率相同时,菏泽市各县的年降水量由北向南呈逐渐递增的趋势。

This research aims to predict short-term precipitation and cope with climate change in Heze,and provide both technical and theoretical support for rational utilization of climate resources,industrial layoutoptimization and government guidance on agricultural production. According to the surface meteorologicalobservation data of 8 counties and 1 district of Heze in 1971-2010,the authors studied spatial distribution,change trend,precipitation mutation,and precipitation assurance of different counties by using unary linearregression analysis,M-K test and precipitation assurance method. The results showed that： the mean annualprecipitation presented a stepped declining trend in Heze from southeast counties to northwest counties,and anobvious rising trend with the time and the rise rate was 16.5 mm/10 a; UB curve was above 0 from 1971 to2001 and the precipitation showed a rising trend significantly; meanwhile,UB curve was below 0 after 2002 and the precipitation showed a declining trend; there was an intersection point in 2003 of UF curve and UBcurve between two reliability lines,indicating that 2003 was the mutation time point. When precipitation assurance was the same,the mean annual precipitation of Heze showed an increasing trend from north to south.