基于WOFOST模型的2014年河南省干旱对夏玉米产量的预估

Estimate of Drought Effect on Summer Maize Yield Based on WOFOST Model in Henan Province in 2014

为了定量化预估干旱持续一段时间而未解除下对夏玉米气象产量的影响,采用预估日前气象数据与预估日后近5年平均值气象数据组成完整序列,设计3种情景4种处理方式,利用WOFOST作物模型预估干旱对夏玉米气象产量的影响。结果表明：在干旱预估当日,仅依靠自然降水条件,不同干旱区夏玉米减产率变化较大,重旱区47%-64%,中旱区28%-50%,轻旱区14%-47%;有灌溉条件下夏玉米减产率大幅下降,干旱影响小;灌溉充足的情景下,轻旱区几乎无减产,重旱区减产率仅在10%-38%之间。利用实况气象数据检验发现,预估方法对中旱区和轻旱区模拟较准确,重旱区模拟效果一般。利用作物模型可以定量化地预估干旱持续一段时间未解除情况下对夏玉米产量的影响。

The paper aims to quantitatively estimate the effect of drought which continued for a period onmeteorological yield of summer maize. The WOFOST model was used to carry out the estimate by adopting themeasured meteorological data before the estimating day and the average meteorological data of the recent 5years after the estimating day forming a new sequence of data,and designing 3 kinds of scenarios and 4 kindsof treatments. The results showed that： on the estimating day,the yield reduction rate of summer maize changedgreatly between 14%-64% in different drought areas only under rainfall. It was between 47%-64% in heavydrought area and 28%-50% in middle drought area,while 14%-47% in light drought area. The yield reductionrate of summer maize dropped sharply with irrigation,under which the drought stress influence was little. Withadequate irrigation,there was nearly no yield reduction in the light drought area and the yield reduction inheavy drought area was between 10%-38%. Verified by actual meteorological data,the model was moreaccurate for the light drought area and middle drought area than for the heavy drought area. Therefore,the cropmodel can be used to quantitatively estimate the effect of continuing drought for a period on the meteorological yield of summer maize.