保险保障、家庭资本增长与贫困陷阱

Insurance security,family capital growth and poverty trap

构建包含保险机制和不含保险机制的两个家庭资本随机增长模型,并给出家庭陷贫概率,以此研究保险保障在家庭摆脱重大突发事件引致的贫困陷阱中的作用。研究发现,家庭获得保险保障后的陷贫概率由可增长资本效应和保险补偿效应共同决定。相对富裕家庭购买保险能降低陷贫概率,且比例保险的赔付比例越高,陷贫概率越小。相对贫困家庭购买保险后的陷贫概率可能提高也可能降低,取决于临界资本对保费费率的敏感系数。无论是相对富裕家庭还是相对贫困家庭,随着保险公司附加保费系数的下降,两种家庭的陷贫概率都随之下降.

This paper constructs two stochastic growth models of fami]y capital with and without insurance mechanisms respectively, defines the probability of falling into the poverty trap, and computes it numerically by giving specific parameters of the random distribution. This paper analyzes whether insurance can help fami- lies get rid of the poverty trap caused by major emergencies with the methods proposed. The result of the re- search shows that after covering insurance, the probability of falling into the poverty trap is determined by two main effects： the effect of increasing capital and the effect of insurance compensation. Richer families can re- duce the probability of falling into the poverty trap by covering insurance, and the higher the insurance propor- tion is, the smaller the probability will be. The probability of falling into the poverty trap of poorer families af- ter covering insurance is ambiguous. Whether the probability will reduce depends on the sensitive coefficient of the critical capital for the premium rates. The probability of falling into the trap for both wealthier families and poorer families will decrease with the decline of additional premium coefficient.