绿色城镇化的空间演化特征及动力机制——以长三角城市群为例

Spatial evolution and dynamic mechanism of green urbanization in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration

研究结合了绿色城镇化的理论分析框架,借鉴DEA模型的思路和方法,综合测度和评价绿色城镇化。再利用区域差异指数、空间自相关,空间Tobit模型等方法,分析了长三角城市群绿色城镇化的空间演化特征及动力机制。研究表明:2005—2014年,长三角城市群绿色城镇化整体上有一定程度的提升。表现出显著的空间自相关性,整体为"S"型的波动轨迹,呈现出长三角西部边陲地区的热点"双核心"空间结构和内陆城市单极的冷点集聚区。经济基础与绿色城镇化成"U"型关系,教育投资、政府导向是驱动力量,而效率驱动是制约因素。

With the theoretical analysis framework of green urbanization,the ideas and methods of DEA model,this research comprehensively measured and evaluated green urbanization. Regional difference index and spatial autocorrelation analysis were used,and the spatial Tobit model was adopted to analyze the spatial evolution characteristics and dynamic mechanism of green urbanization in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration. The conclusions are as follows： In 2005-2014,Green urbanization has improved to a certain degree in the whole are,and most regions are with the effective growth. Green urbanization showed a significant spatial autocorrelation and in the ＂S＂type of volatility in Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration. The distribution presented the western border of Yangtze River Delta region hot dual core spatial structure and single pole cold spots in inland cities. The ＂U＂type relationship between the economic basis and green urbanization,education investment,and government guidance are the driving forces of the green urbanization,while efficiency drive is the restriction factor.