气候变化对红枣产量的影响分析

Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Jujube in Qingjian

该文应用距平法、累积距平法以及Mann-Kendall突变检验法对清涧县温度、降水量及红枣产量数据进行了趋势及突变分析,以探求气候因子对该县45年间红枣产量的影响。结果表明:(1)45年间清涧县红枣产量分别于1998和2006年发生趋势增加的突变;(2)1998和2006年清涧县春、夏季气温均具上升趋势。春、夏季温度是影响清涧县红枣产量的关键因子,清涧县红枣产量与温度呈正相关;(3)清涧县1998年的春季及夏季降水量均具显著下降趋势,春、夏季降水量是影响清涧县红枣产量的关键因子,清涧县红枣产量与降水量呈负相关。

This paper used temperature and precipitation data in Qingjian during 1971-2015 to deal with the cli- matic factors affecting red-jujube yield based on the method of Mann-Kendall test, anomaly and accumulative anomaly. The results shows that： Per unit area yield of jujube had climate change in 1998 and 2006. The temperature of spring and summer rose in 1998, and the temperature of spring and summer had great influence on the per unit area yield of red jujube in Qingjian and increased its yield. Spring and summer precipitation had changed in 1998 with a significant downward trend, spring and summer precipitation was the key factor affecting per unit area yield of red jujube in Qingjian and the yield of jujube was negatively correlated with the precipitation.