内地游客赴香港旅游安全事件的时空分布——基于2010-2014年旅行社责任险统保案例的研究

Research on temporal and spatial distribution of tourism safety & security emergency of mainland tourists traveling to Hong Kong——Based on the cases of travel agencies' liability insurance system during 2010-2014

基于旅行社责任险统保示范项目,将2010-2014年全国旅游企业上报的出险案例作为研究数据,遴选出内地游客赴香港旅游安全事件的561起案例作为研究样本,采用最优尺度分析方法对内地游客赴香港旅游安全事件的时空分布进行分析。研究结果表明,内地游客赴香港旅游安全事件在时间和空间尺度上存在较明显的差异性分布特征。在时间分布上,季度、月份、时段等时间变量与旅游安全事件类型变量呈现紧密的锐角关系;旅游安全事件表现出宏观时间尺度上的分散性特征和微观时间尺度上的集中性特征。在空间分布上,旅游六要素、具体方位等空间变量与旅游安全事件类型变量呈现高度紧密的锐角关系。其中,旅游要素场所发生的旅游安全事件一般是与其经营性质有关的特定事件,旅游安全事件分布的具体方位具有分散性,总体上,交通场所、各类交通节点的事件分布具有集中性。基于此,针对内地与香港旅游安全管理工作提出相应的优化措施。

This paper selected 561 cases which were tourism safety security emergencies of mainland tourists traveling to Hong Kong during 2010-2014 as a sample based on travel agencies＇ liability insurance system demonstration project. Optimal scaling analysis was used to find the characteristics of the temporal and spatial distribution of these tourism safety security emergencies. The results show that tourism safety security emergencies of mainland tourists traveling to Hong Kong have characteristics of difference on temporal and spatial scales. In the aspects of temporal distribution,such as quarter,month,period variables and tourism safety security emergency variables show close angle connection. In general,tourism safety security emergency has characteristics of dispersion on a macro time scale and concentration on the micro time scale. In the aspects of spatial distribution,six components of tourism,specific location variable and tourism safety event variable showed close angle connection. Furthermore,tourism safety security emergencies occurred in tourism places generally refer to operating events. The tourism safety security emergencies occurred on the specific location have characteristics of dispersion. In general,the tourism safety security emergencies occurred on traffic places have characteristics of centrality. Based on these results,the paper puts forward the optimization measures in view of tourism safety management between the mainland and Hong Kong.