我国邮政函件业务的时空演变及其影响因素

The Time-space Evolution and Influencing Factors of Postal Mail Business in China's Mainland

邮政函件业务是邮政最基本的业务,也是人类最为传统的通信方式。目前,我国邮政函件业务已经开始步入由盛转衰阶段,探讨其时空演变规律是信息与通信地理学研究的一个重要命题。利用国家统计局公布的邮政函件及相关影响因素数据,选择邮政函件业务量和人均函件量两个衡量指标,从全国和省域两个空间尺度,具体揭示我国邮政函件业务的时空演变特征及影响因素。研究表明:我国邮政函件业务发展尚未成熟即走向了衰落,从而形成了独具特色的演变规律;邮政函件业务在大陆31个省市的空间分布极不均衡,且近年呈现出明显的集中化特别是向东部地区集中趋势;在以传统函件为主的20世纪,发生条件、人口数量和经济发展水平是主导邮政函件业务发展的决定性因素;在以商业函件为主的21世纪,影响邮政函件业务发展的因素发生了很大变化,其中GDP、人均GDP、城镇化率、邮路总长度、固定电话用户、移动电话用户、网民规模、网民普及率、政策与措施等都会影响邮政函件业务量,但总人口的作用已经逐渐弱化并已至无关,人均GDP、城镇化率和网民普及率则是影响人均函件业务量的主导因素;互联网、固定电话、移动电话、快递等新的通信媒介对邮政函件替代作用显著。

The postal mail business is not only the most basic postal services, but also the most traditional way of the human communication. At present, postal mail business in China's Mainland has begun to enter the stage of decline from prosperity. It is an important topic in the study of information and communication geography to explore the time-space evolution rules of postal mail business. This topic systematically analyzed the time-space evolution characteristics and influencing factors of postal mail business in China's Mainland based on two indicators; total postal mail business and per capita postal mail business, and two spatial scales; country, and province, through the released postal mail business and other indicators data from the National Bureau of Statistics. The resea^h indicates that; The postal mail business development in China's Mainland is not yet mature into the decline. thus forming a unique evolution roles. The spatial distribution of postal mail business in China's Mainland is extremely uneven, and is becoming more and more concentrated in recent years, especially concentrated to the eastern regions. In 20th century when the traditional letter dominated, infrastructure, population quantity and level of economic development were the decisive factors leading to the development of postal mail business. In 21th century when the commercial letters are dominating, factors affecting the development of postal mail business has undergone great changes. GDP. per capita GDP, urbanization rate, total length of postal routes, fixed phone users, mobile phone users, scale of internet users, penetration of interuet users, policy and measures have be- come the main factors, but the role of the population quantity has gradually weakened and has nothing to do. Per capita GDP, urbanization rate and penetration of internet users are the dominant factors affecting the distribution of per capita postal mail business. Internet. fixed telephone, mobile telephone and express delivery obviously led to reduction in the number of postal mail business.