金融结构变迁视角下的区域金融风险研究——基于安徽省的实证分析

Research on the Regional Financial Risks from the Perspective of the Changes in Financial Structure——Based on the Empirical Analysis of Anhui Province

区域金融风险的管理和防控是维护区域金融稳定的根本.以金融结构变迁导致区域金融风险的新变化为视角,从区域经济、区域金融和影子银行体系三个方面构建了区域金融风险综合评价指标体系,并运用熵值法赋权,度量了2011-2015年安徽省区域金融风险的演化趋势.2011年以来,随着实体经济下行及影子银行规模的急剧膨账,两者叠加导致区域金融风险发生的概率在缓步提高,而金融业得益于改革深化,其经营稳健性不断提升,自身固有的金融风险不断下降.因此,要加快经济结构调整,强化金融重点领域的风险管控,加强部门协调合作,进一步优化区域金融生态环境,以此来防范区域金融风险.

The management, prevention and control of regional financial risks are fundamental to the region＇s financial stability. Starting from the perspective of regional financial risk changes, this paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system with the three aspects of regional economy, regional finance and shadow banking system. This paper uses the information entropy method to measure the evolutionary trend of the regional financial risks in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2015. The regional financial risk slowly increased with the fall of the real economy and the rapid expansion of shadow banking since 2011. WMe, benefiting from its deepening reform, the growth of financial industry becomes more and more sustainable, with risks continously decreasing.Therefore, preventing regional financial risk asks for accelerating economic restructuring, controlling financial risk in key field, strengthening the cooperation of different departments, and further optimizing the regional financial ecological environment.