虚幻的不相容与想象的安全困境——权力转移进程中敌意身份的互主性建构

Unreal Incompatibility and Imaginary Security Dilemma:On the Construction of Hostile Identity in the Power Transfer

国际政治中的角色身份与利益认知是在社会性交往互动中被不断建构的产物。在以"主权零死亡时代"为核心特征的洛克体系文化成熟阶段,单纯的权力转移已不再构成体系内大国间安全困境的原因。不论是崛起国,还是守成国,其在权力转移进程中对体系主导观念的认知决定了其对时代主题的判断,对时代主题的判断又决定了战略手段的选择,并最终在崛起国与霸权国之间建构出不同的社会性关系与互动模式。权力转移进程中,大国间敌意身份的互主性建构是如何形成的?通过对其成因的分析,能否为避免敌意螺旋的生成提供新的解决方案?通过对权力转移进程中出现的"想象的安全困境"成因分析发现:崛起国与霸权国之间并不存在现实的生存竞争,但却可能由于经济领域同质化竞争而产生族群排他性负面意象的敌意投射,并在对声望和荣誉的追求基础上形成虚幻的不相容与想象的敌意螺旋。从崛起国战略谋划的角度出发,选择"联系性崛起战略"往往更容易开启同霸权国之间非对抗的新型大国关系,而选择"变位性崛起战略"则更容易开启同霸权国之间的"修昔底德陷阱"。

In international politics,the recognition of one's roles,identities and interests is a result of construction in the continuous social interaction.At the mature stage of Locke's system with the 'sovereign zero death' as its core characteristic,a pure power transfer no longer triggers security dilemma among great powers.In the process of power transfer,both the rising power and the established power make judgments about the theme of the times based on their own cognition of the dominant concepts in the international system.This cognition in turn facilitates their choices of strategic means that will employed and finally shapes the social interaction mode between the rising power and the established power.How is the mutually hostile identity constructed in the process of power transfer? Can a solution to the hostility spiral be found through an analysis of its causes? By analysing the chimerical security dilemma,this paper finds that there is no real survival competition between the rising powers and the hegemonic countries.However,because of the homogeneous competition in the economic field,the ethnic exclusiveness and the projection of negative images,countries may form the idea of unreal incompatibility and chimerical hostility spiral in their pursuit of fame and prestige.For the strategic planning of the rising power,the choice of 'connection rising strategy' will pave the way for a nonconfrontational new relations with the hegemonic countries,while 'displacement rising strategy' will easily fall victim to the Thucydides' s trap.