基于作物生长模型的小麦旱涝敏感性分析与损失评估

Sensitivity analysis and damage assessment for wheat drought and waterlogged based on crop growth model

针对山东、河南、江苏和安徽4个小麦主产省小麦生产现状以及旱涝评估技术要求,运用经改进的WCSODS(小麦栽培模拟优化决策系统),通过检索代表性站点48年(1961-2008年)降水量、麦田初始土壤相对含水量和根层土壤相对含水量资料,计算了上述3要素在平均状况和极端状况下对应的小麦产量的变化幅度,进而进行了冬小麦旱、涝敏感性分析。在此基础上开展了研究区域的冬小麦旱、涝损失评估。结果显示,从时间上看,干旱损失随年代推移有降低的趋势,而涝渍损失没有随年代变化的趋势。从空间上看,干旱、涝渍损失均有明显的纬度分布特点,不同的是,干旱损失表现为北高南低,而涝渍损失表现为南高北低。

According to the production status of four major wheat producing provinces in Shandong, Henan, Jiangsu and Anhui and the technical requirements for drought and flood assessment , improved WCSODS （wheat cultivation simula-tion optimization decision system） was used to calculate the change range of precipitation, initial wheat field soil moisture, root zone soil moisture from 1961 to 2008 in representative sites under average and extreme conditions and to analyze the sensitivity. The damage assessment of drought and waterlogged for winter wheat in studied area. The results showed that the loss of drought had a trend of decreasing with time, but the loss of waterlogging didn’ t change with time. From the aspect of space, the loss of drought and waterlogging also had significantly zonal distribution characteristics, the difference was that the loss of drought in the northern region was higher than that of southern region, while the waterlogging loss in the southern region was higher than that of northern region.