基于前置分解组合预测方法的风电功率爬坡预测研究

Wind power ramp forecasting based on the front decomposition combination forecast method

我国高集中大规模的风电并网发展模式,使风电功率的波动性和不确定性对电网稳定造成越来越大的影响。在目前风电功率爬坡研究的基础上,提出了一种结合前置分解的组合预测算法,并建立了组合预测模型。通过对风电功率爬坡事件的特性分析,对其进行了有效地预测。文章以上海市启东风电场的风电功率数据为实例,通过仿真验证了所提出的组合预测算法能有效地进行风电功率爬坡预测,其预测精度比当前的预测算法有所提高。

In our country, the development mode of high concentration large-scale wind power grid makes the volatility and uncertainty of wind power bring the increasing impact to the power grid stability. Based on the research of the current wind power ramp event,the front combination decomposition combination forecast algorithm was put forward, and the combined forecasting model was established. The effective prediction was made through the analysis on characteristics of wind power ramp events. The paper made the wind power data of Shanghai qidong wind farm as the example, the combination forecast algorithm was verified by the simulation that it can effectively forecast the wind power ramp events and it＇s prediction precision was improved compared to the current prediction algorithm.