基于Bow-tie模型的铁路产品质量抽查失效风险分析

Risk Analysis of Failures in Random Railway Product Quality Inspection Based on Bow-tie Model

基于分析事项起因的故障树分析法和分析后果的事件树分析法的内涵和流程,引入将故障树和事件树组合在一起的Bow-tie风险分析模型。针对铁路产品质量抽查的前期准备阶段、抽样阶段以及检验阶段等3个重要阶段,分别建立Bow-tie模型,采用故障树分析法分析典型事故原因,采用事件树分析法分析事故应急预案,对铁路产品质量抽查失效风险进行分析。结合Bow-tie分析的结果,提出各阶段产品质量抽查任务失效的预防措施及失效后的纠正控制措施。

Based on the connotation and processes of the fault tree analysis to analyze causes and the event tree anal-ysis to analyze consequences,this article introduces the Bow-tie risk analysis model combining the fault tree andthe event tree. With a view to such three key phases as the initial preparation phase,the random inspection phaseand the verification phase that are related to random inspection on railway product quality,a Bow-tie model is estab-lished separately. It adopts the fault tree to analyze typical accident causes and the event tree to analyze the emergen-cy plan for accidents,making an risk analysis on random inspection on railway product quality. In combination ofthe results from the Bow-tie analysis,the article puts forward preventive measures against failures in random inspec-tion on product quality in each phase and to corrective control measures against failures.