稳增长、促就业和低碳转型可以兼顾吗?——基于湖北省社会核算矩阵的分析

Whether Low-Carbon Transformation Can Match with Maintaining Stable Growth and Employment Promotion:An Analysis Based on Hubei Province's Social Accounting Matrix

通过编制2012年湖北省社会核算矩阵并以之为基础测算低碳转型措施对经整合的31个行业的产出、增加值、就业和碳排放的总效应,进而计算累计碳减排的产出、增加值和就业牺牲系数(1单位直接碳减排导致的累计碳减排量与累计产出、增加值和就业变动值之比)发现,非金属矿物制品行业、化学产品行业、金属冶炼及压延加工品行业、交通运输仓储和邮政行业、非金属矿和其他矿采选产品行业、石油和天然气开采产品行业等六个行业是湖北省产业结构低碳转型的关键行业。基于社会核算矩阵计算、比较累计碳减排的产出、增加值和就业牺牲系数是在稳增长、促就业约束下进行低碳转型重点产业辨识的一个有效方法,其测算结果具有重要的政策指导意义。

Based on Hubei Province＇s Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） of 2012, the total effect of low-carbon transformation in the aspects of output, added value and employment have been computed. The coefficients of output, added value and employment sacrifice have been calculated furthermore. The results show that Nonmetallic Minerals Products, Chemical Materials ＆ Products Manufacturing, Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing, Transportation and Storage, Nonmetallic Mineral Mining and Quarrying and Oil ＆ Gas Mining are the most important industries for low-carbon transformation in Hubei Province. Calculation and comparison of the coefficients of output, added value and employment sacrifice based on SAM is an effective method for identification of the key industries of low-carbon transformation under the constraints of maintaining stable growth and employment promotion. The results are instructive for policy making.