渭南市土地利用与生态环境协调发展预测与评价

Evaluation and prediction of coordinating development between land use and the environment in Weinan City

针对研究区土地利用与生态环境系统的特点,以渭南市为例,选取2000—2013年渭南市统计年鉴数据,建立土地利用与生态环境评价体系,利用主成分分析法确定指标权重,根据杨士弘提出的协调发展模型计算该市近20年的协调发展水平,采用NAR模型对2014—2020年的发展水平进行预测。研究结果表明:渭南市土地利用与生态环境之间的关系是动态非线性的,具体表现在2000—2004年为发展初期,这一阶段表现为失调衰退状态的更替及向协调状态的过渡调整,土地利用的发展滞后于生态环境的发展;2005—2010年为发展中期,两者协调发展,整体呈稳步上升的状态;2011年以后,两者的关系逐渐变得稳定协调,生态环境的发展滞后于土地利用的发展。并得出以下结论:1)渭南市土地利用综合评价指数呈逐年增加的趋势,生态环境综合评价指数则表现为波动性的变化;2)自2011年起,两者的关系一直处于中级协调发展阶段,反映出土地利用效益与生态环境效益之间仍然存在着较大的可挖掘潜力。因此,本文尝试提出渭南市在调整土地利用结构与方式的同时,应加大生态环境保护的力度,建立生态环境友好型的土地利用模式,提高土地利用的综合效益,以保证该市土地利用与生态环境的协调发展程度向更高的阶段推进。

Based on the data of land use and the environment from Weinan Statistical yearbook, this paper developed an assessment system for evaluating the spatial and temporal patterns of land use and the environment during 2000-2013 and further predicting their changes from 2014 to 2020. We used principal component analysis （PCA） method to determine the weight of index, and applied the coordinated development models proposed by YANG Shihong to calculate the level of coordinated development of both land use and the environment of Weinan City in recent 20 years. Then we further used nonlinear auto-regressive （NAR） model to predict the future trend of land use and the environment in this city in next 7 years. The results indicated that the relationship between land use and the environment was nonlinear and dynamic. From 2000 to 2004, there was the early stage of development, which went through the replacement of recessionary disorder state and the transition of being harmonious. From 2005 to 2010, there was the middle stage of development in which their relationship gradually became orderly, stable and coordinated. And the overall trend of the index gradually increased. After 2011, ecological development lagged behind land use. Results from this study have drawn two conclusions： one is that the index of comprehensive analysis for land use shows gradually increasing trend in the study period and the index of comprehensive analysis for ecological environment varied from year to year; the other is that since 2011, the relationship of them is always in the middle stage of harmonious development, which indicates there still exists rather big exploited potential for the co-benefits between land use and ecological environment. Therefore in order to balance the development of land use and the environment, the municipal government of Weinan City should pay attention to the way of land use, and take measures to protect the environment, which is crucial to the coordinated sustainable development between land use and ecological environment in Weinan.