CES模型在道路交通事故预测中的应用

The Application of Cubic Exponential Smooth Model in Road Traffic Accidents Prediction

我国正属于经济发展的高速时期,人们的生活水平逐步提高,发达的交通在给人们高节奏的生活带来便利时,也给人们带来了频发的道路交通事故,预测方法的研究可以有效地减少交通事故给人们带来的生命与财产的威胁。为了探究更为合适精确的交通事故预测方法,文章选用了指数平滑法方法,以2009年至2013年影响山东省道路交通事故严重程度的四个指标的统计数据为原始数据,包括交通事故发生次数、死亡人数、受伤人数、财产损失,建立起CES(三次指数平滑)预测模型,并预测出未来几年内的四个交通事故指标值,其结果可以为交通管理部门制定措施和对策提供理论依据。

China is in the period of high-speed economic development, people＇s living standards have gradually improved. The developed transportation brings people a lot of convenience for the high-paced lives. At the same time, it also causes frequent road accidents. The study of prediction method can effectively reduce the threat of accidents for life and property. To explore more suitable and accurate methods for accurate prediction of traffic accidents, this paper chooses gray prediction method and cubic exponential smoothing method. The statistical data of four indicators of road traffic accidents in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2013 is taken as the research object, including the number of traffic accidents, the number of deaths, the number of injuries, and property damage. CES（cubic exponential smoothing） forecast model is established to predict traffic accidents of the four index values in the next few years. The results may provide a theoretical basis for the traffic management departments to develop measures and countermeasures.