船舶交通动力系统事故突变研究

Study on Accident Mutation for Vessel Traffic Dynamic System

为揭示船舶交通事故本质，建立船舶交通事故预控机制，基于突变理论对船舶交通动力系统的事故突变进行研究。针对事故调查与分析中的存在的问题，在传统事故致因理论的基础上提出了船舶交通事故的突变致因观，使得事故致因理论在海上交通工程学领域得到进一步深化；进一步建立了船舶交通动力系统事故突变模型，并进行了事故致因突变分析；最后提出了船舶交通事故突变演化机理，为船舶交通动力系统的突变行为提供了理论依据。

To reveal essence of vessel traffic dynamic system （VTDS） accident catastrophe, the vessel traffic accident pre- diction and control mechanism of the ~TDS was set up based on catastrophe theory. The catastrophe concept of the vessel traffic accident was proposed on account of the traditional accident cause theory in the yiew of problems in the accidents investigation and analysis, which is making further deepening on accident theory in the field of marine traffic engineering. The VTDS accident catastrophe model is established and the accident cause mutation was analyzed. The evolution mechanism of vessel traffic accident catastrophe was set forth to provide a theoretical basis for catastrophe behavior of VTDS.