中日经济增长与碳排放关系比较——基于EKC曲线理论的实证分析

The Comparison of Economic Growth and Carbon Emission between China and Japan : Empirical Analysis Based on EKC Curve Theory

本文以经济增长与碳排放关系的EKC曲线为基础,收集整理了1984—2014年中国人均GDP和人均碳排放数据以及1960—2014年日本人均GDP和人均碳排放数据,对比分析了中日两国人均GDP和人均碳排放之间的关系。研究结果表明:中国的EKC曲线呈倒"N"型,存在拐点;日本的EKC曲线呈"N"型,存在拐点。最后,通过研究日本1960—2014年的EKC曲线,预测中国EKC曲线的未来走势,发现中国的碳排放有上升趋势。

This paper analyzes the characteristics of the trend of EKC curve in different economic development stages between China and Japan. And it＇s based on the EKC curve which signifies the relationship between economic growth and carbon emission, aiming at offering some references for China on low - carbon economy. Author collects and sorts out the data on per capita GDP and per capita carbon emission of China from 1984 to 2014 and the same kind of data in Japan from 1960 to 2014, comparing and analyzing the relationship of these data between the two countries. Following findings were achieved that the EKC curve of China shows a reversed N shape with an inflection point, while the EKC curve of Japan shows an N shape with an inflection point. According to the EKC curve of Japan from 1960 to 2014, we forecast the future trend of China＇s EKC curve and find that there will be a rising tendency of carbon emission in China.