摘要
中国地方政府债券的规模和杠杆率较大,引发了国内外的关注和对其可能引发风险的忧虑。如何评估其潜在风险,是学界面临的难题。由于金融资产的交易价格反映了投资者对其风险的判断,因而可以从金融资产相对于无风险资产的风险溢价角度,实证研究其风险的大小和风险成分。具体地,运用2012—2015年的中国地方债券指数日数据,分析中国地方债风险溢价构成,可探讨中国地方债的风险。研究发现,中国地方政府债券的收益率主要为利率风险溢价,信用风险溢价比例很小,因而中国地方政府债券的主要风险是利率风险。
Large scale and high leverage ratio of Chinese local government bonds trigger great attention and anxiety from domestic and overseas. But how to evaluate the potential risks is still a difficult problem. From the basic financial theory of risk -return relationship, the scale and components of risks can be empirically studied by means of decomposing the financial assets＇ risk premium. Using daily data of Chinese local government bond index from 2012 to 2015 ,the paper analyses its risk premium and discussed its risks. Empirical results show that interest rate risk premium is the main premium of Chinese local government bonds, and credit risk premium is very low. It can be concluded that the most important risk of Chinese local government bond is interest rate risk.
作者
梁朝晖
费兆楠
张亮
LIANG Zhaohui FEI Zhaonan ZHANG Liang(Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300384, Chin)
出处
《首都经济贸易大学学报》
CSSCI
2017年第1期12-17,共6页
Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"基于利差结构的信用违约互换研究"(71371136)
关键词
地方政府债
风险溢价
信用风险
利率风险
local government bond
risk premium
credit risk
interest rate risk
