农民工犯罪倾向的影响因素分析

Study on Influencing Factors of Migrant Workers' Criminal Tendencies

利用10省份调查数据,在推导出农民工犯罪倾向理论模型基础上,分析农民工服刑人员和不涉罪普通农民工之间在个人特征、家庭特征和行为特征三个维度上变量的总体和内部差异。研究发现:(1)男性、年龄较小、受教育水平低、家庭收入少、母亲受教育水平低、兄弟姐妹个数多、失业严重、曾有违纪违法行为的农民工犯罪倾向高;(2)社会保险状况和犯罪被发现可能性影响不涉罪农民工犯罪倾向;(3)家庭成员犯罪史和刑罚打击力度影响服刑人员农民工犯罪倾向。

Based on survey data from 10 provinces, this paper analyzed the overall differences and internal differences of variables in three dimensions including personal characteristics, family characteristics and behavioral characteristics between imprisoned migrant workers and migrant workers who are not involved in crime. It showed that： （1）migrant workers who are male, young, less educated, with less family income, lower maternal education level, more siblings, unemployment, had misconduct （such as alcoholism, gambling and fighting） and violations （such as drug abuse, theft, robbery and assault） have higher criminal tendencies. （2）compared with the impris oned ones, migrant workers not involved in crime having worse social insurance status and less likely to be arrested crime have higher criminal tendencies. （3）compared with those not involved in crime, imprisoned migrant workers with less family crime history and more punishment have lower criminal tendencies.