生育政策调整对农村人口结构的影响

Model Analysis of Impact of Fertility Policy Adjustment on Rural Population Structure

生育政策调整会改变人们的生育行为,进而对未来人口结构发展趋势产生重要的影响。根据生育政策调整幅度设定三种生育政策实施方案,运用队列分要素法的基本原理构建农村人口预测模型,以全国第六次人口普查数据为基础对2014-2035年中国农村人口进行预测。结果表明:方案一中,农村出生人口规模将进一步缩减,到2035年,人口结构金字塔呈"倒三角"形态,人口发展的衰退趋势明显;方案二中,农村出生人口规模会明显增加,到2035年人口老龄化程度较方案一有所缓解;方案三中,农村出生人口数进一步增加,到2035年人口结构将更加年轻化,人口发展较为稳定。可以说,目前我国计划生育政策的调整有利于缓解农村地区的人口结构性矛盾,促进人口与经济、社会的和谐发展。

Fertility policy adjustment will change people＇s reproductive behavior, and has an important influence on the future population structure. The paper uses Cohort-Component Method to establish a rural population forecast model, and predicts 2016-2035 China rural population in case of fertility policy adjustment and no fertility policy adjustment on the basis of the sixth national population census data. The results show that if keeping the 2010 birth policy unchanged, rural born population and total population will reduce further, and by 2035, the population pyramid shows the form of ＂nabla＂ form, and the decline trend of population development is obvious. If we carry out the current fertility policy adjustment scheme, the scale of rural born population will increase obviously, and compared to the previous scheme, the degree of population ageing will be eased and the population structure will be more stable in 2035. It can be said that at present, Chings family planning policy adjustment is helpful to ease the population structural contradiction in rural areas, and promotes the harmonious development of the population, economy and society.