外来劳动力挤占了本地居民的就业机会吗?

Do Migrant Workers Squeeze the Employment Opportunities of Local Citizens?

城市就业包容性的提升是实现城镇化发展的重要内容,而异质外来移民对原有居民的就业机会将产生不同影响。文章运用动态监测数据,按劳动力的技能水平、所属行业和流入时期分析城市劳动力市场的就业包容性,衡量人力资本等因素在异质外来劳动力就业过程中的作用机制。研究发现:(1)总体而言,人力资本的差异性取代传统的行业壁垒已成为获取就业机会的主要因素。(2)进一步使用工具变量,对劳动力组群的就业决定模型进行估计发现,外来劳动力占比每上升10%,城市原有劳动力的就业率将下降0.04-1.99个百分点,表现为外来劳动力对城市原有低技能劳动力就业率的影响并不明显,但对高技能劳动力的就业率产生显著冲击,且此现象在部分高进入门槛行业尤为明显。(3)城市劳动力市场对不同时期流入的高技能组劳动力的包容性显著低于低技能组,高技能组劳动力之间存在更高的替代性。(4)与本地劳动力的就业率相比,新进入的外来劳动力对前期进入的外来劳动力的就业率的影响会更大,且这种影响同样会随着受教育程度的提高而递增。因此,在完善就业市场的同时,应在就业的前置和后置环节制定更有针对性的人才培养机制和引入措施。

The increase in inclusive urban employment is the important content of the realization of urbanization development, and heterogenous migrants will have different effects on the employment opportunities of local citizens. Using the dynamic monitoring data, this paper analyzes the employment inclusion of urban labor market according to skill levels of labor force, industries they belong to and the inflow period, and measures the role of factors like human capital in the employment process of heterogenous migrants. It arrives at the conclusions as follows： firstly, in general, the differentiated human capital replaces the traditional barriers to the entry to industries and becomes a major factor af- fecting access to employment; secondly, using the instrumental variables, the estimation of employment determination model of labor groups shows that the employment rates of urban local labor force will decrease by 0.04--1.99 percentage points for the increase in the proportion of migrant workers by 10~//00, indicating that migrant workers have unobvious effects on the employment rates of urban local low-skilled labor but significant shocks to the employment rates of urban local high-skilled labor, which is especially obvious in some industries with high entry barriers; thirdly, the inclusion of high-skilled labor in urban la- bor market is significantly lower than the one of low-skilled labor, and there is higher sub- stitution between high-skilled labor~ fourthly, compared with the employment rates of lo- cal labor, migrant workers as new entrants have the greater effect on the employment rates of migrant workers as pre-entrants, and this effect also rises with the improvement of education degree. Therefore, while perfecting employment market, it should formulate more targeted talent cultivation mechanism and introduction measures in the pre and post links of employment.