摘要
本文先构建了中国资本账户开放度CAO和中国金融稳定指数CFSI,然后对2003Q4-2015Q4期间我国资本账户开放度和金融稳定指数做实证研究,证明两者之间存在负向长期稳定关系,中国资本账户开放度及其滞后项每上升1个单位,会导致中国金融稳定指数分别下降0.382401个单位和0.343556个单位,故实证检验证明中国资本账户开放对金融稳定影响是不利的。在目前阶段,由于资本账户开放条件尚未完全具备,所以要谨慎对待资本账户开放,防范风险。
The author constructs Chinese capital account opening index of CAO and chinese financial stability index CFSI, then do empirical research on the relationship of CAO and CFSI during 2013Q4-2015Q4.The quantitative research reveals that there is a negative long-term relationship between CAO and CFSI. When CAO that lags one term rises 1 unit, the CFSI will fell 0.343556 units; the degree of the Chinese capital account increases 1 unit, resulting in 0.382401 units felling down of the Chinese financial stability index. China＇s capital account liberalization has a negative effect on CFSI. In the current stage, due to the opening condition is not yet fully equipped and being aware of the risks, we should be careful to open the capital account.
出处
《投资研究》
2016年第9期82-92,共11页
Review of Investment Studies
基金
教育部青年基金项目(编号:12YJC790209)
北方工业大学优势学科建设专项基金(编号:XN081)
关键词
资本账户开放
金融稳定
协整
Capital account liberalization
Financial stability
Co-integration
