“海上丝绸之路”自然环境风险分析

Risk analysis for the natural environment of ‘Maritime Silk Road'

着眼于海上丝绸之路的战略地位,基于高程数据、历史水文气象数据等,首先分析了海上丝绸之路主要海域的自然地理环境和气候特征;在此基础上,针对海上丝绸之路所面临的自然环境灾害,基于风险评估与风险管理理论,建立了海上丝绸之路自然环境风险指标体系与评估模型,并基于地理信息平台(GIS)和历史气象水文数据和航运信息等,以大风(浪)风险为例,进行了评估试验。初步结果表明,冬季,南海大部尤其是台湾海峡和巴士海峡附近的大风(浪)风险较高,而印度洋的风险则普遍在中等以下;夏季,阿拉伯海大部分海域尤其是索马里东北部海域大风(浪)风险较高,其它海域的风险则多在中等程度以下。

A With regard to the strategic position of the‘Maritime Silk Road＇, the natural geographical and climatic charac- teristics of‘ Maritime Silk Road＇ and its related sea area were firstly analyzed, based on elevation data and historically hydro- logical and meteorological data. On this basis, aiming at the natural disasters which the ‘Maritime Silk Road＇ may face with, the risk analysis indices and risk assessment model for natural environment of ‘ Marine Silk Road＇ were built, based on the risk assessment and risk management theory. Then, taking the big wind （wave） as an example, risk assessment experiment was carried out on the geographic information system （GIS）, based on historically meteorological and hydrological data and ship- ping information. The results show that： in winter, the big wind （wave） risk is relatively higher in South China Sea especially around the Taiwan Strait and Bashi Channel, while it is generally lower in the Indian Ocean. However, the risk is relatively higher in most of the Arabian Sea especially off the northeast of Somalia, while it is usually moderate or low in other regions.