“21世纪海上丝绸之路”之4个主要东盟国家人文环境风险评估

Risk assessment of the human environment of four major ASEAN countries for the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road

在"21世纪海上丝绸之路"重大战略设想提出的背景下,针对东盟国家在海上丝绸之路中的重要性及其因社会制度、发展水平等导致的人文环境的不确定性,开展了菲律宾、马来西亚、新加坡、印度尼西亚等4个东盟国家人文环境风险分析,引入了云模型的理论方法,针对4个东盟国家的4类主要的人文环境风险——国家政局、经济状况、军事实力、政治结盟及其综合人文环境风险进行了定量化评估。研究结果表明,4个评估目标国家综合人文环境风险并不高,但个别国家的某一类或几类人文环境风险偏高,值得针对性的给予关注。

With regards to the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road on the sea in 21st century, this paper has carried out the risk analysis of four ASEAN countries such as Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia, aiming at the importance of ASEAN countries in the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road and the uncertainty of their human environment due to their social institution, development and so on. The Cloud Model method has been introduced in this paper to make the assessment of four kinds of human environment risks--political situation, pecuniary condition, military might, political alliance and their comprehensive risks of these four ASEAN countries. The results show that the comprehensive human environment risks of the four evaluated objects are relatively low, but it is worthy of the attention due to some kinds of high risks in certain nations.