全国视角下吉林省二氧化碳排放竞争力及时间演变特性分析

Analysis on Competitive Capacity and Time Evolution of Carbon Dioxide Emission of Jilin Province from the National Perspective

吉林省作为联系辽黑两省的纽带,对其碳排放状况进行深入研究,有利于充分认识和了解整个东北地区碳排放现状和趋势,进而促进东北乃至全国经济和社会的协调发展。从全国视角对吉林省近年来二氧化碳净排放现状、各个驱动因素的变化趋势的研究表明,近年来吉林省二氧化碳净排放呈现逐年增加的态势,但是增幅小于全国总体增幅。我国二氧化碳净排放主要受人均GDP和人口数量两个因素的共同影响,人均GDP的驱动作用大于人口数量的驱动。吉林省二氧化碳的增加也同样受人均GDP和人口数量两个因素的共同影响,但是人均GDP的驱动作用更强。为了保证经济、社会、环境的和谐发展,吉林省应在保持经济发展的前提下,不断降低单位GDP能耗,同时大力植树造林,减少碳汇,并制定和实施积极、稳健的人口控制策略。

Jilin Province is a link between Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province in Northeast China. An in-depth research on its carbon emission is conducive to fully understanding the current situation and the trend of carbon emission in Northeast China in an effort to promote the economic and social development in the northeastern region and the whole country. A study is conducted in this paper to analyze the current situation and the trend of net emission of carbon dioxide and the changes of driving factors from the national perspective in Jilin Province. The result indicates that net emission of carbon dioxide of Jilin Province presents an increasing trend year after year,but this increase is less than that of national overall level. China＇s net emission of carbon dioxide is mainly influenced by GDP per capita and population. The force driven by GDP per capita is greater than that driven by population. However,the increase of carbon dioxide in Jilin Province is also affected by both GDP per capita and population. But the driving force of GDP per capita is stronger. In order to ensure the harmonious development of economy,society and environment,Jilin Province should reduce energy consumption per unit GDP while maintaining economic development. Meanwhile,Jilin Province should plant trees,reduce carbon sink and formulate and implement a positive and stable population control strategy.