中国海洋经济增长与海洋环境污染互动关系研究——基于广义脉冲响应函数的实证分析

China's marine economy growth and marine environment pollution: anempirical test based on generalized impulse response function

论文运用广义脉冲响应函数方法,考察我国1999-2011年间海洋环境污染指标与海洋经济增长之间的长期动态影响特征。分析结果表明,海洋经济增长是导致我国海洋环境污染排放增加的重要原因,随着海洋经济的增长,将导致各类污染物的排放量在当期大幅增加,但在后期影响作用越来越小,而且我国海洋环境将有进一步恶化的趋势;海洋环境污染物排放的增加会阻碍海洋经济的发展,而污染物排放的增加在当期对海洋经济增长不会产生冲击,其负面影响往往要在滞后一段时期后才得到显著反应。

By employing generalized impulse response function; this paper aims at investigating the dynamic interactions between marine economy growth and marine environment pollution by using a Chinese time series data during 1999-2011. The empirical results suggest that, the marine economy growth is an important factor to the marine environment pollution emissions in China. Marine economy growth will lead to substantial increase of the marinepollution emissions in the current period, but later the influence becomes smaller and smaller. Marine environment pollution does have reverse effect on marine economic growth, and marine environment pollution affects marine economic growth with a lag effect.